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Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver the Spring Statement on Wednesday 13 March 2019, where he will respond to the OBR's latest economic and fiscal forecasts.

This will also be an opportunity for him to set out government priorities ahead of the Spending Review due later in the year.

New figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) show that whilst the 2016 benefits freeze has kept most working-age benefits at the same value as 2015/16, essential items such as sugar and butter have increased by 17% and 23.1% respectively since benefits were frozen.

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Work and Pensions Committee

Wednesday 27 February 2019 Meeting starts at 9.30am

AGENDA

Subject: Universal Credit: ‘natural’ migration

Witnesses: David Finch, Senior Research Fellow, Resolution Foundation, Tom Waters, Research Economist, Institute for Fiscal Studies, and Zoe Charlesworth, Policy and Product Manager, Policy in Practice

Witnesses: James Taylor, Head of Policy, Public Affairs and Campaigns, Scope, Kayley Hignell, Head of Policy (Families, Welfare and Work), Citizens Advice, and Daphne Hall, Vice-Chair, National Association of Welfare Rights Advisers

UK government must speed up repayments after 20,000 die while potentially owed money

The SNP has demanded that Amber Rudd come before Parliament to answer questions on the growing ESA payments scandal - after it emerged as many as 20,000 sick and disabled claimants have died while still potentially owed overdue back-payments by the UK government.

Image: ESA Payments glitch is causing hardship.

Neil Gray MP, SNP Social Justice spokesperson, said the UK government must finally "get a grip" of the spiralling scandal, speed up the repayments process, and launch an urgent DWP-wide review of procedures to identify and prevent further payment errors.

The MP accused the Tory government of presiding over a catalogue of errors that have left sick and disabled people worse off and struggling to get by.

The call for action comes after the DWP was forced to admit that a further 30,000 claimants were owed money as a result of miscalculations in the transition to ESA, taking the total to around 210,000. The error dates back to 2011 and was first identified in December 2016 but the situation has not been resolved and further errors continue to emerge.

Commenting, Neil Gray MP said:

“The shameful admission by the UK government that as many as 20,000 people died while they were still potentially owed ESA back-payment money is yet another damning indictment of the Tories' callous policies.

“It marks the latest chapter in a catalogue of errors in the UK government’s damaging approach to social security, which has demonstrably harmed peoples’ lives and plunged sick and disabled people into poverty and hardship.

“With nearly 210,000 claimants identified as being underpaid as a result of miscalculations in the botched transition to ESA, Amber Rudd must urgently get a grip of this spiralling scandal, speed up the repayments process, and launch a department-wide review of procedures to identify and prevent any further errors in the benefits system.

“The UK government must also ensure that any payments found to be owed in the cases of those who have died must still go to the families.

“The Secretary of State must come before Parliament, and set out what steps are already underway regarding other social security payments to ensure that similar errors have not occurred, as well as guaranteeing that the resources going into these investigations and back payments are not coming out of the existing DWP budget.

Image: ESA Payments glitch is causing hardship.

"As Brexit chaos consumes Westminster, the Tory government is failing to get on with the day job and is failing some of the most vulnerable people across Scotland and the UK. It is high time the DWP got its head out of the sand and acted before it consigns more people into poverty and hardship."

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In March 2017, The Global FoodBanking Network (GFN) announced a goal of making greater strides in the fight against hunger by expanding food banking service from 6.8 million to 8 million people facing hunger by the end of 2018.  Thanks to the leadership of food banks around the world more than 9 million people facing hunger were able to access nutritious meals because of a local food bank in 2018, exceeding the campaign’s goal.

 The ‘8 Million by 2018’ challenge was the first of its kind for GFN. When the organisation announced the challenge, food banks served by GFN were reaching 6.8 million people facing hunger.

Food banks around the globe boldly supported the target. At the time the challenge was announced, the UN had announced that after decades of decline, hunger rates were again on the rise, calling into question the world’s ability to end hunger by 2030. 

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New temporary accommodation to help Horsham District residents facing homelessness moved a step closer to completion this week (week commencing 11 February) with an official topping out ceremony on the site of the new homes.

Horsham District Council has developed new temporary accommodation houses and flats for Horsham District residents facing homelessness, helping to avoid the use of Bed and Breakfast accommodation wherever possible.

Recognising the potentially poor outcomes for local people facing homelessness and being placed in Bed and Breakfast accommodation, the council has taken the opportunity to develop eight units of accommodation in north Horsham in order to support those in greatest housing need. The self- contained flats will enable homeless households to remain in the District and continue invaluable support connections with social and family networks.

ABC Note: In building construction, topping out (sometimes referred to as topping off) is a builders' rite traditionally held when the last beam (or its equivalent) is placed atop a structure during its construction.

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Figures released this morning show that of the 597 homelessness deaths in 2017, Manchester (21) and Birmingham (18) were the cities worst affected, with Bristol, Lambeth and Liverpool (all 17), also registering more than one death a month. Responding to these statistics, Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran, who has introduced legislation to scrap the archaic Vagrancy Act, said:  “The fact that nearly 600 people died on our streets in 2017 is not just a tragedy, it is a national disgrace of which we should be deeply ashamed.
 
“These figures show that all over the country, our homelessness crisis is at epidemic levels and people are indefensibly losing their lives. We must do more to protect vulnerable people and support those at their lowest ebb.
 
"The Liberal Democrats demand better. We want the Government to be building up to 100,000 social homes a year, provide accommodation and support to those in need, and finally back my Bill to scrap the Vagrancy Act."

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Approximately eight million people are caught in a debt trap, paying out an average of a quarter of their incomes each month to their lenders. 

Consumer credit is a debt that a person incurs when purchasing a good or service. Consumer credit includes purchases obtained with credit cards, lines of credit and some loans. Consumer credit is also known as consumer debt. Consumer credit is divided into two classifications: revolving credit and installment credit. The most common form of consumer credit is a credit card.

Consumer credit is frequently measured by economists and other financial analysts as it serves as an indicator of economic growth. For example, if consumers can easily borrow money and repay those debts on time, then the economy is stimulated resulting in economic growth.

From the Financial Times:

British banks expect consumers’ appetite for borrowing to evaporate in the first quarter of 2019 as a weak economic outlook keeps households from taking on new borrowing, according to a Bank of England survey released on Thursday. The survey of major British lenders found that more forecast that demand for credit card lending would fall during the first quarter of the year than during the financial crisis. The survey added to a growing body of evidence that political turmoil in Westminster is having a chilling effect on the economy, with the uncertainty leading businesses and consumers to hold off from making major financial decisions. A net balance of 20.7 per cent of lenders said credit card borrowing would slow over the next three months, a record high for the survey, which began in 2007. Meanwhile, a net 17.5 per cent of British lenders said they expected mortgage demand to fall during the first quarter of 2019, the highest percentage since the final quarter of 2010. The figures follow British Retail Consortium data showing that retail sales in the important Christmas trading period were their worst since 2008, and figures from the automotive industry showing that in 2018 car sales dropped at the fastest rate since 2009.

Here is a video about borrowing:

Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Regina Doherty, T.D., today announced that an information campaign will be launched this weekend to inform workers of new entitlements that will accompany important new employment legislation coming into effect on 4 March 2019. The Employment (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act, which was signed by the President on 25 December 2018, delivers on the Programme for Government commitment to address the challenges of increased casualisation of work and to strengthen the regulation of precarious employment.

Hailing the Act as one of the most significant pieces of employment legislation in a generation, Minister Doherty said:

“I was very happy to introduce this important new piece of legislation and the information campaign launching this weekend is intended to bring workers up to speed on their new rights. When it comes into effect, just ten days away, this new law will profoundly improve the security and predictability of working hours for employees on insecure contracts.

“My Department has worked closely with the Workplace Relations Commission (WRC) to provide information about the changes being introduced in the Bill, ahead of its introduction, in order to ensure employers are brought fully up to date on their new obligations. This information campaign complements this work and will serve as a reminder to all workers concerned that the new protections are now coming into effect.”

And: 

The Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection is pleased to announce the opening of a new, centralised office in Ballybofey, Co Donegal.

The new office will provide a more comprehensive service to customers by merging several social welfare services into the one location. The following services will be available from the new office:

• * Community Welfare Officer (currently in Navenny House, Ballybofey)
• * Employment Support Services (currently in Dunfril House, Chestnut Road, Ballybofey)
• * Community Development Officer (currently in Dunfril House, Chestnut Road, Ballybofey)
• * Social Welfare Inspectors (currently in 14/15 Chestnut Rd, Ballybofey)

The new office will be located at Butt Hall Centre, Lower Main Street, Ballybofey, and will open to the public on Monday 4th March 2018. Contact telephone number: 074 9130384. Opening times for the new office are Monday to Friday: 9.30am to 1.00pm & 2.00pm to 4.00pm.

In order to facilitate the moves the Department offices at Chestnut Road, Dunfril House and Navenney House will be closed on Thursday, 28 February 2019 from 1.00pm and Friday, 01 March 2019. Customers seeking to contact the above offices during the closure period should contact Donegal Town Control Office on 074 9740070. We regret any inconvenience this may cause.

Image: Ballybofey, Ireland

ABC Note:

1. History of Social Welfare in Ireland

1766 - Friendly Societies & Trade Unions

1834 - Poor Relief Act

1908 - Old Age Pension Act

1911 - National Insurance Scheme

1933 - National Health Insurance transferred to Minister for Local Government & Public Health

1936 - Insurance contributions for Widows and Orphans

1947 - Department of Social Welfare established

1952 - Department of Social Welfare became fully functional

1974 - Introduction of compulsory Social Insurance

1979 – Pay Related Social Insurance (PRSI) Scheme introduced

1982 - Set up of Social Welfare Tribunal

1986 - Set up of Social Welfare Services Office

1988 - Introduction of PRSI for the self employed

1991 - Set up of Social Welfare Appeals Office

1997 - Renamed Department of Social, Community and Family Affairs

2002 - Renamed Department of Social & Family Affairs

2010 - Renamed Department of Social Protection

2017 - Renamed Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection

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Estimates from the Labour Force Survey show that, between July to September 2018 and October to December 2018, the number of people in work increased, while the number of unemployed people and the number of people aged from 16 to 64 years not working and not seeking nor available to work (economically inactive) both fell.

There were an estimated 32.60 million people in work, 167,000 more than for July to September 2018 and 444,000 more than for a year earlier.

The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were in work) was estimated at 75.8%, higher than for a year earlier (75.2%) and the joint-highest since comparable estimates began in 1971.

There were an estimated 844,000 people (not seasonally adjusted) in employment on zero-hours contracts in their main job, 57,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

There were an estimated 1.36 million unemployed people (people not in work but seeking and available to work), 14,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 100,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The unemployment rate (the number of unemployed people as a proportion of all employed and unemployed people) was estimated at 4.0%, it has not been lower since December 1974 to February 1975.

There were an estimated 8.63 million people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive (not working and not seeking nor available to work), 94,000 fewer than for July to September 2018 and 153,000 fewer than for a year earlier.

The economic inactivity rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 years who were economically inactive) was estimated at 20.9%, the lowest figure since comparable estimates began in 1971.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 3.4% both excluding and including bonuses compared with a year earlier.

Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) increased by 1.2% excluding bonuses, and by 1.3% including bonuses, compared with a year earlier.

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The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment was unchanged over the quarter and decreased over the year.

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period October-December 2018 was 3.8%. The unemployment rate did not change over the quarter and decreased by 0.3 percentage points (pps) over the year. Although the quarterly and annual changes were not statistically significant, the decrease in the unemployment rate from the mid-2017 unemployment rates is statistically significant, and likely to reflect real change.

The NI unemployment rate (3.8%) is below the UK average (4.0%) and is the fifth lowest rate of the UK regions. NI unemployment was lower than the Republic of Ireland (5.3%) and the European Union (6.7%) rates for November 2018.

Under half (46.1%) of those unemployed in NI were unemployed for one year or more, which is above the UK average of 26.1%.

Employment rate increased and inactivity rate decreased over the quarter.

There was an increase in the employment rate (70.3%) over the quarter (0.9 pps) and over the year (1.7 pps). These changes were not statistically significant over the quarter or the year but the employment rate is statistically significantly above 2015 rates.

The economic inactivity rate (26.8%) decreased over the quarter (0.9pps) and over the year (1.6 pps). The changes over the quarter and the year were not statistically significant, however, the inactivity rate is significantly below rates in 2010.

Confirmed redundancies increased over the year.

The number of confirmed redundancies (2,575) in the most recent 12 months is 50% higher than in the previous 12 months.  NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 209 redundancies took place in January 2019. A total of 42 redundancies were proposed between mid-January 2019 and mid-February 2019, a decrease on the previous monthly period total of 58.

Commentary.

The Labour Force Survey continues to show low unemployment evident since late 2017. The employment rate is the highest on record and continues the trend of increasing employment from 2017, while the quarterly and annual falls in inactivity are consistent with a trend of decreasing inactivity from 2017. Although the unemployment and employment rates are at notably low and high levels respectively, at 26.8% the inactivity rate is broadly average when compared to rates over the past 5 years.

When compared to the other UK regions, NI has the fifth lowest unemployment rate, the lowest employment rate and highest inactivity rate. The UK is experiencing its joint lowest unemployment rate, its lowest inactivity rate and joint highest employment rate on record.