Northern Labour Market Statistics Ireland

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency.

Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment was unchanged over the quarter and decreased over the year.

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period October-December 2018 was 3.8%. The unemployment rate did not change over the quarter and decreased by 0.3 percentage points (pps) over the year. Although the quarterly and annual changes were not statistically significant, the decrease in the unemployment rate from the mid-2017 unemployment rates is statistically significant, and likely to reflect real change.

The NI unemployment rate (3.8%) is below the UK average (4.0%) and is the fifth lowest rate of the UK regions. NI unemployment was lower than the Republic of Ireland (5.3%) and the European Union (6.7%) rates for November 2018.

Under half (46.1%) of those unemployed in NI were unemployed for one year or more, which is above the UK average of 26.1%.

Employment rate increased and inactivity rate decreased over the quarter.

There was an increase in the employment rate (70.3%) over the quarter (0.9 pps) and over the year (1.7 pps). These changes were not statistically significant over the quarter or the year but the employment rate is statistically significantly above 2015 rates.

The economic inactivity rate (26.8%) decreased over the quarter (0.9pps) and over the year (1.6 pps). The changes over the quarter and the year were not statistically significant, however, the inactivity rate is significantly below rates in 2010.

Confirmed redundancies increased over the year.

The number of confirmed redundancies (2,575) in the most recent 12 months is 50% higher than in the previous 12 months.  NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 209 redundancies took place in January 2019. A total of 42 redundancies were proposed between mid-January 2019 and mid-February 2019, a decrease on the previous monthly period total of 58.

Commentary.

The Labour Force Survey continues to show low unemployment evident since late 2017. The employment rate is the highest on record and continues the trend of increasing employment from 2017, while the quarterly and annual falls in inactivity are consistent with a trend of decreasing inactivity from 2017. Although the unemployment and employment rates are at notably low and high levels respectively, at 26.8% the inactivity rate is broadly average when compared to rates over the past 5 years.

When compared to the other UK regions, NI has the fifth lowest unemployment rate, the lowest employment rate and highest inactivity rate. The UK is experiencing its joint lowest unemployment rate, its lowest inactivity rate and joint highest employment rate on record.