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Could Nick Clegg lose his seat at the next general election?

The constituency of Sheffield Hallam is unusual in having had five -specific opinion polls conducted between 2010 and 2015. Each of these polls have suggested significant changes in the seat's electoral composition since the 2010 general election.

A lot of people failed to vote at the last election turning up late and missing the 10:00PM deadline due to congestion. Voters at the Ranmoor polling station were subjected to long queues and the returning officer has vowed this will not happen again.

On average across all five opinion polls, Labour has a lead over the Lib Dems of 4.6% and the substantial 15,284 majority enjoyed by Nick Clegg may be a thing of the past.

Nigel Farage, yet to win a seat in the HofP contesting Thanet South is facing candidates such as Al-Zebabist Nation of OOOG and the Free United Kingdom Party, with candidate The Pub Landlord (TV celebrity Al Murray).     

Political party Plaid Cymru have announced their stated goals, in which that they intend to bring down GP waiting times across the whole of Wales.

Wales is apparently facing a GP time bomb, with almost 50% of GPs in some areas approaching retirement age. Figures the party argues; shows that the number of GPs in Wales has reduced by 20 over the past year despite a Labour Welsh Government policy to shift emphasis of patient care out of acute hospitals and to GP led services in the community.

The ambitious goals include training and recruiting a thousand extra doctors to the NHS in Wales. Offering structured financial incentives to encourage doctors to difficult-to-recruit areas and investing in telemedicine to help people get access to specialist care in their local GP surgery.

Plaid Cymru acknowledged that delivering linger hours for GP surgeries would need to be delivered by renegotiating the GP contracts and claim that the Labour Government in Wales has failed to deliver its manifesto commitment to improve access to GP surgeries.

In short seeing that everyone in Wales is able to access their GP when they need it.

While the Conservative Party refuses to come clean on where its massive 12 billion on benefits cuts are to come from [potentially it seems so far] refusing to announce where these cuts will fall, till after the election.

It certainly seems to be undemocratic to enter a general election refusing to explain to voters clearly, what your party’s plans are?

Meanwhile in Kansas USA, welfare recipients will be unable to get more than $25 per day in benefits from an ATM machine under a new law. Claimants will only be able to withdraw this much each day.

The bill prohibits welfare recipients from spending their benefits at certain types of businesses, including liquor stores, fortune tellers, swimming pools and cruise ships.

Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, often known as "welfare," is one of several federal programs administered by states at the ground level. The Kansas TANF program, known locally as the Successful Families Program, offers a family of three as much as $429 per month in cash benefits. Kansas is one of at least 37 states that distributes benefits on government-issued debit cards, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Under the new rule, a three-person family receiving the maximum benefit would have to go to the ATM more than a dozen times to get the full benefit.

Elsewhere Republicans have been busy pursuing changes to TANF, food stamps and unemployment insurance, with varying degrees of success. Missouri Republicans, for instance, are considering a bill to forbid food stamps from being spent on steak or seafood.

The federal welfare reform law of 1996 gave states significant leeway to design their own programs, and for the past five years, state Republicans have been busy pursuing changes to TANF, food stamps and unemployment insurance, with varying degrees of success.

Will we see these kind of draconian measures in the UK? That is a possibility, though these type of extreme measures may well breech the Human Rights Act?  The right of free association and particularly the right of free movement have been blamed for causing the immigration dilemma – ironically these rights may well benefit the British people as restrictions of benefits may well infringe fundamental rights.

It is nothing new of course - following winning the Battle of Hastings, William the Conquer forbade movement of serfs round the countryside, reducing them to little more than slaves. Williams’s dictatorship, with its draconian laws and cruel treatment of the poor, made him one of the world’s wealthiest people in history.  

It all sounds rather familiar - history does indeed repeat itself.  We certainly will need to weigh carefully the rights of taxpayer who fund benefits, with the rights and freedoms of those who receive them.  

Article produced with help from the Huffington Post

From today those over 55 can claim and spend their pension which will help the economic recovery however many pension firms and employers have echoed the government’s caution with their own warning that they are not ready for the changes.

For years those retiring at the end of their working lives were effectively forced to hand over their accumulated pension pot to a big pension company to buy an annuity – which in return would pay a set monthly income until death. About 400,000 people spent £12bn last year buying annuities, approximately 20% of pension customers are eligible to cash in funds from today.

The three government-backed “guidance” services that are supposed to aid those looking to cash in their pension pots cannot currently be promoted publicly due to election rules – see our article: Purdah.

All cash devalues over time due to inflation. This is called the Rule of 72 or you can use the Rule of 70.

RULE OF 70

To determine the time for money's buying power to halve, financiers simply divide the rule-quantity by the inflation rate. Thus at 3.5% inflation using the rule of 70, it should take approximately 70/3.5 = 20 years for the value of a unit of currency to halve.

Though you may be getting interest the actual value of your lump sum is diminishing.

The way forward is to invest in real assets such as property or stocks and shares which provide both a return in rent or dividends and capital growth.

One thing NOT to do is to blow it all on having a good time and relying on a state pension, you might not have one! 

As the electioneering clatters on it is perhaps worth considering a topic closely association with politics – the use of Propaganda.

Techniques involving propaganda can be very extreme indeed and for that reason we have attached so you can download, a Soviet manual on Brainwashing.  SEE THE BOTTOM OF THE ARTICLE TO DOWNLOAD.  

Propaganda is a form of communication aimed towards influencing the attitude of a population toward some cause or position. There are two types of Propaganda, White Propaganda & Black Propaganda. The former generally more gentle and persuasive and used for public good, the latter more associated with lies or disinformation.

Spin is a more negative aspect of propaganda that came from the ‘public relations’ industry.  

Politicians are often accused by their opponents of claiming to be honest and seek the truth while using spin tactics to manipulate public opinion.

The use of disinformation in politics is ‘as old as the hills itself’.

Themistocles was a brilliant Greek politician whose actions in persuading the public to enlarge the Navy undoubtedly saved his nation when the Persians under

According to Themistocles' biographer Plutarch of Chaeronea, the young man "was of a vehement and impetuous nature, of a quick apprehension, and a strong and aspiring bent for action and great affairs"

In the year 483/482, a vein of silver was discovered near Laurion, east of Athens. Under normal circumstances, the state would have given every citizen a sum of money and would have leased out the mining rights. Themistocles, however, proposed to use the money to build warships. The war between Athens and Aegina had already lasted several years, and Themistocles argued that the Athenian ships were no match for the larger fleet of the enemy.

The Greeks had had already defeated the Persians and were unlikely to appreciate the extent of the threat.

The Athenian People's Assembly accepted this argument, but many must have seen through the proposal. In the east, the Persian king Darius had been succeeded by his son Xerxes, who had ordered a full-scale expedition against the Greeks. His engineers were already digging a canal through the Athos (text), and it was easy to understand that Xerxes wanted to use a very large fleet to support his army during the invasion of Greece. Themistocles' shipbuilding program was directed against Persia, not Aegina.

The Persians defeated the Spartans, the legendary 300 at the ‘Hot Gates’ the Battle of Thermopylae and overran the Greek mainland but in the naval engagement at Salamis the Greeks lured Xerxes fleet into a narrow strait where their superior numbers proved useless and the Persian ships with all their food and supplies was destroyed forcing them to retire from Greece.  

The use of propaganda in politics is nothing new but by reading the Soviet Manuel on Brainwashing and their thoughts on Psychopolitics is a good place to start.

Later we may talk about the development of propaganda in the UK. The Tavistock Institute of Human Relations and Edward Louis James Bernays (1891 − March 9, 1995) an Austrian-American pioneer in the field of public relations and propaganda, referred to in his obituary as "the father of public relations".

We see over three thousand advertisements a day and watch nine hours of screen time from TV to mobile phones.

If you think your opinions are yours, you may need to think again.

Compiled with help from Wikipedia

Minister for Employment, Esther McVey of the Conservative Party is one politician and ex. MP who must be feeling the pressure as the Election draws closer. McVey has stated openly her interest in being Prime Minister.

Esther McVey only has a slim majority of 2,436.  

The previous MP Stephen Hesford (born 27 May 1957) is a British Labour Party politician who was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Wirral West from 1997 to 2010. Since leaving parliament he has become a guest lecturer at the University of Chester.

In 2010, with 55,077 people eligible to vote, Wirral West had the smallest electorate of any constituency in England.

From her website:

Esther is Conservative MP for Wirral West and in the reshuffle in October 2013 was promoted to the position of Minister of State for Employment, in addition, in the latest reshuffle July 2014, she was further promoted to attend Cabinet.

Esther is first Conservative MP on Merseyside since 1997 and the only current Conservative MP in Merseyside. Esther graduated in Law before becoming a graduate trainee with the BBC in 1991. She then went on to work for in media for the next 14 years as a Broadcaster and a Journalist.

Esther then left media in 2000 to establish her own business setting up office space for new start-up companies as well as establishing the biggest business women’s network in the northwest.

 In 2008, Esther went back to Liverpool John Moore’s university to do an MSc in Corporate Governance, graduating with a distinction as well as winning the North of England excellence award for her studies. This then became part of her careers book “If Chloe Can” which Esther wrote and had sponsored and it is being delivered to schools across the UK. Esther has also written a boys book ‘You Can’, and both books have been turned into plays with the National Youth Theatre, currently being performed at London’s West End before touring the country.

Esther was the first MP to employ an apprentice and got the House of Commons authorities to introduce the scheme. Esther is passionate about issues such as careers, youth unemployment, apprenticeship, investment and business growth. She has also been nominated for the Merseyside Woman of the Year and Cheshire Woman of the Year.      

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 Dissolution of Parliament

Following the dissolution of Parliament on Monday 30 March 2015 there are no Members of Parliament. Every seat in the Commons will be vacant until after the general election on 7 May 2015.

Under the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 a Parliament is dissolved 25 working days before the general election.

Parliament was dissolved on 30 March 2015.

Parliament may be 'prorogued' a few days before being dissolved. At prorogation all parliamentary business ends, although that Parliament would still exist until dissolution.

When Parliament has been dissolved the Monarch issues a royal proclamation summoning the new Parliament. The royal proclamation is published in the London and Edinburgh Gazettes.

The Prime Minister asked Her Majesty to summon the new Parliament to meet on Monday 18 May 2015, when the business will be the election of the Commons Speaker and the swearing-in of members.

The State Opening of Parliament will take place on Wednesday 27 May 2015.

House of Commons

When Parliament is dissolved, every seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant. All business in the House comes to an end. There are no Members of Parliament. MPs revert to being members of the public and lose privileges associated with being a Member of Parliament.

MPs are allowed access to Parliament for just a few days in which to remove papers from their offices. The facilities that the House provides for MPs in Westminster during a Parliament are no longer available to them from 5pm on the day of dissolution.

Until a new Parliament is elected, there are no MPs. Those who wish to be MPs again must stand again as candidates for election.

Role of the Commons Speaker at dissolution

The Speaker is no longer an MP once Parliament is dissolved as there are no longer any MPs until the new Parliament is returned.

Like every other MP, the Speaker must stand for re-election at a general election if he or she wishes to become an MP again. If the Speaker stands as a candidate in the election they stand as 'Speaker seeking re-election'.

House of Lords

Members of the House of Lords are appointed, not elected. Members of the House of Lords retain their positions, but all business in the House comes to an end when Parliament is dissolved.

While Members of the Lords can access the premises of Parliament, only limited facilities and services are available to them.

Dissolution honours for former MPs

It is customary for the Prime Minister to recommend new life peerages for some former MPs to the Queen at the end of a Parliament in a Dissolution Honours list.

What happens to the Government when Parliament is dissolved?

Parliament and Government are two separate institutions.

The Government does not resign when Parliament is dissolved. Government ministers remain in charge of their departments until after the result of the election is known and a new administration is formed.

The Prime Minister is appointed by the Sovereign. Ministers are appointed by the Sovereign on the advice of the Prime Minister. These appointments are independent of the role of MP. Ministers retain their ministerial titles after dissolution, but those who were MPs can no longer use the MP suffix.

The Cabinet Manual sets out the main laws, rules and conventions affecting the conduct and operation of government.

Pre-election period

Guidance is issued to civil servants on the principles that they should observe in relation to the conduct of Government business in the run-up to forthcoming elections. This period is sometimes referred to as 'purdah'. In 2015 the pre-election period will commence at dissolution, on 30 March.

Commons Library briefings

The House of Commons Library produces briefing papers to inform MPs and their staff of key issues. The papers contain factual information and a range of opinions on each subject, and aim to be politically impartial.

The Library has published briefing papers on the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 and the dissolution of Parliament.

As he hot debate over benefit sanctions continues, it is being brought to our notice that Jobcentre Plus staff are sanctioning people who have been offered jobs. Obviously after, weeks, months, and sometimes years of the laborious task of job searching - Claimants can easily take the ‘foot off the gas’ as they await the opportunity to start their new position.

At this point many Claimants are finding themselves sanctioned for not doing enough to look for work even though they have got a job! Madness as it may seem to the many people who might assume sanctions were their to correct poor attitudes and errant behaviour. Many who start work find the transition back into work a huge financial challenge. Finding money for fares and living expenses is a very considerable hurdle to many. In fact some would argue it is a barrier to work.

The Conservatives scrapped the back to work bonus shortly after coming to power. We have always thought a bit of 'psyching-up' is need - the new job starting long before that first day in the job.  

Therefore we advise members not to sit back and take it easy, while waiting for that new position to start. A sanction could take away the funds you need to get started in work once more.

The potential Conservative welfare cuts set out in the leaked Whitehall documents shows that the Tories have promised, to cut billions from the social security budget in the next parliament.

These cuts will impact on the very groups the coalition has tried so far to protect from its five years of welfare reforms: “hard-working families”, disabled people who cannot work, and carers who spend their lives caring for chronically ill loved ones.

A Labour government is claiming would tackle the use of food banks across the UK, with the pledge that they “can never be allowed to become a permanent feature of British society”. Shadow ministers will promise to solve jobcentre benefit delays, halt the growth of benefit sanctions, and address low pay in a five-point plan aimed at reducing the number of people forced to turn to food banks.

Trussell Trust statistics showing that nearly a million people used food banks in 2013-

Labour will promise a cross-government approach to end what it calls the “chaos of food policy”

The High Pay Centre, a Think Tank produces some very interesting videos. This one about equality is particularly striking.

The ABC's policy is to remain as neutral as possible but bring to our members attention as much 'fact' as we can. We will be reviewing the policies and rthe promises in more detail as the election nears.