Migrants, Migrants, Migrants

All the European chatter is about migrants currently,

Germany — refugees no magic labor market solution: Germany desperately needs more workers, and the German government hopes Syrian refugees will fit the bill. There are problems, notably that “Less than 15 percent of refugees from Syria and other war-torn countries have completed vocational training or a university degree, according to a September 2015 study by Germany’s Institute for Employment Research. Even those with training often don’t have the skills expected in Germany. On average, an eighth-grader in pre-war Syria had a similar level to a third-grade student in Germany, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).” And while German unemployment is very low, for the lowest-skilled workers up to 20 percent are without a job. 

In Serbia: “It is -8c yet the trains and the refugees never stop … We get text messages from the IOM teams in Greece and Macedonia when trains leave so we know how many are coming … Many townspeople have purchased ‘Taxi’ signs that fit atop their cars and park, in droves, on the dirt road at the opening of the town but around the bend from where the free buses wait … so they can charge the refugees for a taxi ride to Presevo (up to 50 euros), which is about 20-30 minutes’ drive away … Right after I arrived for my shift a Syrian family of 12 — from grandparents to grandchildren of perhaps 5 or 6 — arrived with a little girl in a wheelchair. In the meantime, it turns out the wheelchair has lost a bolt holding part of the suspension together; we see this reasonably frequently.” 

Meanwhile in Norway: Kristian Adolfsen, 55, and his brother Roger, 51, run 90 immigration centers in Norway and 10 more in Sweden. Refugees represent a huge opportunity for them; the Adolfsens’ Oslo-based company, Hero Norway, is the leader of a burgeoning Scandinavian industry that charges the Norwegian and Swedish governments a fixed fee—$31 to $75 per person per night in Norway—to house and feed refugees.

For 2015, Hero Norway expects revenue of $63 million, with profits of 3.5 percent. In the rest of Europe, where asylum seekers typically are cared for by nongovernmental organizations such as the Red Cross, only one for-profit is larger than the Adolfsens’ operation, ORS Services, a Swiss company that in 2014 generated $99 million in profit caring for refugees in Switzerland, Austria, and Germany. (ORS won’t disclose its 2015 profits.)

The Adolfsens have succeeded in part because they have a background in hospitality. In the three decades since they founded Adolfsen Group, Kristian and Roger have built an $800 million-a-year network of businesses that includes preschools and nursing homes, as well as hotels, apartment buildings, cruise lines, and ski resorts. The two entered the refugee sector in May 2014, when they paid a Danish company, ISS Facility Services, $22 million for Hero Norway, a 27-year-old company that ran 32 refugee centres.

David Cameron has found a more receptive audience in several European countries this week as he continues to push for a controversial ban on welfare benefits for EU migrants.

After getting encouraging signals from key German and Polish politicians that they would be willing to accept some restrictions on the benefits, the British prime minister will travel Thursday to Budapest, where he will discuss the issue with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

For the moment Cameron is sticking to his proposal for a four-year restriction on benefits, which he says will be crucial to convincing the British public to vote to stay in the EU in a referendum.

But he has also been leaving some wiggle-room as he talks to EU leaders, saying that he is willing to entertain other proposals. And he has been spinning the benefits reform proposal as something that’s good for all governments, not just Britain’s. That will be central to his message to Orbán, according to officials.

“Cameron’s argument is that it’s in the self-interest of Eastern European member states to limit the high level of immigration of skilled workforce towards the U.K.,” said one source familiar with the discussions.

That message may resonate with Orbán, who has said he wants to stem the flow of migrants from Hungary to other EU countries.

Sourse: Politico & Bloomberg