ONS Labour Market Figures Masking True Rate of Unemployment Say Chamber of Commerce

LABOUR MARKET SURVEY - These are the latest figures:

The British Chamber of Commerce has said:

Commenting on the ONS labour market figures for September 2020, published today, BCC Head of Economics Suren Thiru said:

“Despite the slight rise in the unemployment rate, the furlough scheme continues to limit the pandemic’s full impact on headline job figures.

However, the decline in employees on payrolls and the rise in the claimant count in August as the furlough scheme began to taper is a clear warning that the full impact of Coronavirus on the UK labour market is yet to come.

“While there was a rise in the number of job vacancies, this is more likely to reflect a temporary bounce as the economy gradually opened, rather than a meaningful upturn in demand for labour.

“With many firms are still facing waves of cash flow problems, rising costs and an uncertain economic outlook, it is probable that unemployment will escalate sharply as government support winds down.

“To help avoid a damaging cliff edge for jobs more must be done help firms keep staff on through this deeply challenging period. This should include a significant cut in employer National Insurance Contributions and more substantial support for firms placed under local lockdowns.”

The ONS figure for claimant unemployed is 2,737,900, and is up by 73,700 on last month, and the claimant rate is 7.6%.

• The ONS figure for 18-24 claimant unemployed is 526,400 in August, up by 291,300 or 124% on March.
• Vacancies in August have now recovered by 177,000 after falling 470,000 between February and May.
• Unemployment is 1,398,000, up by 60,000 from last month’s published figure (quarterly headline is up by 62,000) and the unemployment rate 4.1%, increased by 0.2 percentage points on last month and rose by 0.2 percentage points on last quarter.
• The number of workless young people (not in employment, full-time education or training) is 1,023,000, down by 3,000 on the quarter, and is 14.9% of the youth population.
• Youth unemployment (including students) is 563,000, up by 36,000 on the quarter.
• The employment rate is 76.5% (has risen by 0.1 percentage points on last month’s published figure and rose by 0.1 percentage points in the preferred quarterly measure).

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