The Brexit crisis has triggered a big move in public opinion, if the polls are to be believed. With a swing of about 1.5pc from Conservatives to Labour over November, Labour is now just ahead of the Conservatives in terms of the predicted popular vote. In the House of Commons, the two parties would be very close but the Conservatives would have a handful more seats.
If these figures came out exactly right, parliament would be badly hung with no credible combination of parties able to make a majority. The present Conservative/DUP arrangement would be well short of a majority, and a potential Conservative/SNP grouping, with a majority of 12 seats, would be literally incredible. But a Labour/SNP alliance would be two seats short of a majority.
Whatever Conservative divisions there are over the Brexit choices, don't expect to hear many of them calling for a snap general election at the moment.
The headline prediction table is here now:
|
Party |
2017 Votes |
2017 Seats |
Pred Votes |
Pred Seats |
|
CON |
43.5% |
318 |
39.0% |
288 |
|
LAB |
41.0% |
262 |
39.6% |
281 |
|
LIB |
7.6% |
12 |
8.2% |
16 |
|
UKIP |
1.9% |
0 |
3.6% |
0 |
|
Green |
1.7% |
1 |
2.3% |
1 |
|
SNP |
3.1% |
35 |
3.3% |
43 |
|
PlaidC |
0.5% |
4 |
0.5% |
3 |
|
Minor |
0.7% |
0 |
3.5% |
0 |
|
N.Ire |
18 |
18 |
Prediction based on opinion polls from 20 Oct 2018 to 27 Nov 2018, sampling 26,990 people.
If the new constituency boundaries were in place parliament would still be badly hung with the Conservatives short 20 seats of a majority with 281 seats out of 600, Labour on 248 seats, and the SNP winning 39 seats.
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