Northern Ireland Experimental Claimant Count Increases but The Labour Force Survey Stays the Same

The labour market statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency.

Labour Force Survey (LFS) unemployment increased over the quarter and was unchanged over the year

The latest NI seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the period July-September 2018 was 4.1%. The unemployment rate increased by 0.3 pps over the quarter and was unchanged over the year. Although the quarterly change was not statistically significant, the decrease from 2016 rates was statistically significant, and likely to reflect real change.

The NI unemployment rate (4.1%) is level with the UK average and is the fifth highest rate of the UK regions. NI unemployment was lower than the Republic of Ireland (5.6%) and the European Union (6.8%) rates for August 2018.

Half (50%) of those unemployed in NI were unemployed for one year or more, compared to 25% in the UK.

Employment rate decreased over the quarter while the economic inactivity rate increased

• There was a decrease (0.8 pps) in the employment rate (68.5%) over the quarter and an increase (0.4 pps) over the year.  These changes were not statistically significant over the quarter or the year but the employment rate is statistically significantly above 2010 rates.                                                               
• The economic inactivity rate (28.5%) increased over the quarter (0.6pps) and decreased over the year (0.4 pps). The changes over the quarter and the year were not statistically significant, however, the inactivity rate is significantly above 2016 rates.

NI Claimant Count (Experimental Series) increased over the month

• Universal Credit was introduced in NI in September 2017 replacing income-based Jobseekers Allowance for new claimants. On the October claimant count reference date Universal Credit was available in 27 out of 35 Job Centres in NI, including five out of seven Job Centres in Belfast. Roll out for new claimants will be complete by December 2018. 
• In October 2018, the seasonally adjusted number of people on the claimant count (which includes some out-of-work claimants of Universal Credit) was 29,500 (3.2% of the workforce). This represents an increase of 400 from the previous month’s revised figure.
• The claimant count is an experimental statistic as it is still in the development phase.

Confirmed redundancies increased over the year

• The number of confirmed redundancies (2,741) in the most recent 12 months is a third higher than in the previous 12 months.  NISRA, acting on behalf of the Department for the Economy, received confirmation that 116 redundancies took place in October 2018 and notification that 263 were proposed between mid-October and mid-November 2018.

Earnings increased over the year

• The latest Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings estimates indicate that median gross weekly earnings for full-time employees in April 2018 was £521, an increase of 4.2% from £500 in 2017. When adjusted for inflation, weekly earnings increased by 2%, following a decrease in real earnings last year.

Commentary

• The unemployment rate (4.1%) increased by 0.3pps over the quarter and was unchanged over the year to July-September 2018. The employment rate (68.5%) decreased over the quarter and increased over the year, while the economic inactivity rate (28.5%) increased over the quarter and decreased over the year. Although the NI unemployment rate is now the same as the UK unemployment rate, the employment rate in NI is the lowest and the inactivity rate is the highest of the UK regions.
• Whilst none of the quarterly or annual changes were statistically significant, the unemployment rate is significantly below and the inactivity rate is significantly above rates in 2016. The employment rate is significantly above rates in 2010.

Image:Shankill Jobs & Benefits Centre.

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