Growth Slowing & Net Migration Falling

The UK economy grew 0.2% during the first three months of 2017, down from 0.7% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2016. The figures revealed a slowdown in the growth in services output and declining growth in UK production output towards the end of the first quarter period this year.

Construction output also fell during the three months to March, while the UK's trade deficit widened by £5.7 billion to £10.5bn between the fourth quarter of last year and first quarter of 2017. The ONS said this was "mainly due to increased imports of oil, chemicals, mechanical machinery and cars".

This week, the ONS also reported that net migration had fallen to +248,000 at the end of last year, down from +332,000 the previous year. Net migration refers to the difference between immigration into and emigration out of the UK, and the 2016 figure is the lowest estimate of net migration since the year ending March 2014.

Although the figure is far higher than the "tens of thousands" target specified by previous UK governments, the figures show a statistically significant increase in the number of those leaving the UK, particularly those from the EU. The change in the number of those immigrating to the UK was not statistically significant, despite the Brexit vote of June 2016, according to the ONS.

As Professor Jonathan Portes pointed out earlier in the year, if people cannot plan with any confidence, not just about themselves but their families, they are both less likely to come and less likely to stay. Small wonder that employers – not just farmers, but sectors ranging from the National Health Service to universities – are finding it far harder to persuade EU nationals to take up jobs in this country.  And this, once again, illustrates a vitally important point; migration is not just a matter of the UK choosing migrants; migrants have to choose us. Even if we wish to remain open to skilled migrants from elsewhere in the EU post-Brexit, they may not choose to come here (or remain here).

In the meantime, the TUC's Frances O'Grady is in Hartlepool with the #PayRise tour, talking about our living standards crisis and the need to get pay moving again, in the North East and across the country.