UK General Election Race Tightens Up

Weekend polls have the Conservatives ahead by between 6 and 14 points. Takeaway: the race has tightened. 

Politicos Sunday Crunch rounds up the election latest. 

Terror shadow over election: The tenor of this general election changed utterly on Monday with the suicide bomb attack in Manchester. The fallout looks set to lead the agenda going into the home straight. Tory campaign officials are happy that the heightened focus on security has brought Corbyn and his close allies’ records to the fore. The Labour leader and his shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, spent much of Sunday morning defending their previous stance on the IRA — exactly where the Tories want the debate to be. Home Secretary Amber Rudd, whose reputation as one of the party’s most dependable media performers has been burnished by this election, renewed Theresa May’s recent attack on Corbyn in brutal fashion, telling the Mail on Sunday the country would be at greater risk of another terrorist atrocity under his leadership. In the Sunday Express, May highlighted a manifesto pledge for a new Commission for Countering Extremism and accepted the government had to be “stronger and more resolute” against terror.

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— Tory division at the very top: However, the Tories aren’t having it all their own way. The Sunday Times reports a major rift has opened up at the top of the campaign team between May’s trusted co-chief of staff Nick Timothy, who was responsible for the doomed ‘dementia tax’ policy in the party’s manifesto, and strategist Lynton Crosby, who didn’t want it in the document. Strikingly, Timothy’s co-chief Fiona Hill was on the side of Crosby, political editor Tim Shipman reports. That would mean a rare split within the triumvirate — of May, Timothy and Hill — that is at the heart of Downing Street power. The social care debacle is coming up repeatedly on the doorstep, Tory candidates say, and even after the events in Manchester, voters haven’t forgotten it, according to Sunday Times columnist Adam Boulton. Tory campaign officials told POLITICO this week that their plan to get the campaign back on track was to return to basic principles: focus on the leaders. The Sunday Telegraph reports that, to this end, after an unhappy foray into domestic issues, Tory campaigning could move back towards Brexit, with May touted as the stronger negotiator.

— Don’t forget the Brexit negotiation: With all that has happened in the U.K. this past week, the rather large matter of Brexit has been slightly forgotten about. Enter The Observer, which reports that influential pro-EU Tory Dominic Grieve is pointing out that security cooperation with the EU makes Britain safer and should be prioritized in the negotiation (starting June 19) even if “some sort of mechanism for the European court is going to be necessary.” That would mean crossing of one of Theresa May’s red lines, and may set the stage for a fresh battle with her MPs after the election. Senior Conservative sources have told POLITICO that May called this election because she wants a big majority — partly so that she can stand up, not to the Brexiteers in her party as is often thought, but to ex-Remainers like Grieve.

— What are the polls saying: Plenty of polls around in the Sunday papers today, showing a varying picture, but agreeing on the fact that the Tories have dipped and Labour have gained. A YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the Tories on a seven-point lead — better than in a bombshell poll published Friday, but still worrying if May wants a big majority. An ORB poll in the Sunday Telegraph is even tighter: it has a six-point lead for the Tories. A ComRes poll for the Independent and the Sunday Mirror is healthier for May, with a 12 point lead, and an ICM poll for the Sun gives the Tories a 14-point lead and puts them on track for a whopping 126-seat majority. Despite some still showing big leads, polling guru John Curtice was clear on the BBC’s Sunday Politics: “the clear consistent message from the polls is that the Conservative lead has narrowed.”

— Hair wars: Oddest line of the day goes to Diane Abbott, who appeared to suggest that adjusting your views about the IRA was easy as getting a haircut. Challenged over views expressed in 1984, she told Andrew Marr: “It was 34 years ago, I had a rather splendid afro at the time. I don’t have the same hairstyle and I don’t have the same views.” Amber Rudd didn’t waste time in capitalizing: “I’ve changed my hairstyle a few times in 34 years as well, but I’ve not changed my view about how we keep the British public safe,” she said, somehow keeping a straight face. It all forced Jeremy Corbyn, on Robert Peston’s show, into a defensive line that will go down in political communications history: “Diane’s hairstyle is a matter for Diane.”

THE ANDREW MARR SHOW

Takeaway: Rudd seeks to consolidate government ‘strong and stable’ image in wake of terror attack.

Paper reviewers:Jacqui Smith, former Labour home secretary; Craig Oliver, David Cameron’s former director of communications; Jon Sopel, BBC North America editor

Amber Rudd, home secretary

On the Manchester investigation: “It’s an ongoing operation. There are 11 people in custody, the operation is still at full tilt, in a way. Until the operation is complete, we can’t be entirely sure that it is closed.”

Armed police cuts, what armed police cuts? “There will be as many armed police at the end of this year as there have ever been, so we are stepping that up, all the time.”

MI5 investigating 500 potential terror plots: “We know we need to do more, we recognize the scale of the threat … the numbers have been confirmed by MI5 that they are looking at 500 different plots, 3,000 [people] on a top list and 20,000 underneath that, but that’s all different layers, different tiers.”

Hinting at more money for security services: “We won’t shy away from finding out what else we can do to keep people safe. The budget has already gone up significantly, we are recruiting 1,000 … people for MI5. We will look at this, in a way to learn from it to make sure that we keep people safe going forward. So if there is a need for more recruitment or more security or more armored vehicles, which we’re investing in as well, we will look at doing that.”

On Diane Abbott: “I thought she gave a very poor account of not being able to engage with banning proscribed organizations. We’ve banned them, we’ve banned a far-right group as well … What I would say to Diane Abbott is I’ve changed my hairstyle a few times in 34 years as well, but I’ve not changed my view about how we keep the British public safe.”

Diane Abbott, shadow home secretary

Her credentials for the job: “There is something to be said for a home secretary who has actually worked in the Home Office — for three years as a graduate trainee – I know how it works from the inside. There is something to be said for a home secretary who as a very young woman worked and campaigned with diverse communities, and sees these issues not just from the point of view of bureaucrats but from the point of view of diverse communities. And there’s also something to be said for a home secretary who has spent 30 years as a constituency MP and knows how these issues impact ordinary people.”

Hitting back at May on counter-terror record: “On many … occasions, I and Jeremy Corbyn were going through the lobby with Tory MPs. Theresa May herself voted against the 2005 Prevention of Terrorism bill, she voted against ID cards and she voted against control orders without sufficient legal intervention.”

On her 1984 comment that defeats for British state in Ireland, and elsewhere, are “victory for all of us:”  It was 34 years ago, I had a rather splendid afro at the time. I don’t have the same hairstyle and I don’t have the same views. It is 34 years on, the hairstyle has gone, and some of the views have gone.”

Leanne Wood, leader of Plaid Cymru

On police resourcing: “You can give people some more confidence by making sure there are plans in place and that emergency services are properly resourced to deal with things. We wouldn’t need troops on the streets perhaps if there were enough police officers on the streets.”

On mass surveillance proposals: “The idea of watching everyone, and being able to access everyone’s email and communications, that’s where we have a problem.”

Caroline Lucas, co-leader of the Green Party

Who are you calling extremist? “How effective is it if you’re increasing the number of people you’re putting under surveillance, if you’re mass trawling? People like myself are on the domestic extremist list, people like peaceful environmentalists are on that list, how does that help if the police resources are being spent looking after people like myself and my colleague Jenny Jones rather than people that really pose a serious risk”

On the Prevent program: “Many in the Muslim community believe it to have been an attack on their group in particular. We absolutely want there to be a mechanism where people can come to the state with concerns but when it is perceived by the Muslim community itself as being a toxic big brother brand then we need to look at it again.”

PESTON ON SUNDAY

Takeaway: Diane Abbott’s IRA comments distract from Corbyn’s message.

Paper reviewers: Former Liberal Democrat business secretary Vince Cable, SNP candidate Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh

Jeremy Corbyn, Labour leader

Danger of cutting police: “It seems that the cuts in police numbers have led to some very dangerous situations emerging. It’s also a question of a community response as well so that where an imam, for example, alerts the police that he’s very concerned about somebody, I would hope they would act and I hope they would have the resources to act as well.”

Clarifying links to IRA: “I have not spoken to the IRA. I have in the past and still do often meet people from Sinn Fein … I’ve met former prisoners who told me they were not in the IRA … I have met former prisoners with my eyes open on it on the basis that there had to be the development of a peace process in Northern Ireland.”

On Diane Abbott’s IRA comments: “Diane’s hairstyle is a matter for Diane” And would he make her home secretary: “Diane is our home affairs spokesperson and I’m looking to appoint our shadow cabinet.”

Foreign interventions he would and would not have carried out: “Kosovo, I had my doubts because of the degree of bombing that went on and I think there should have been more efforts put into UN peace efforts … where there is a clear threat of genocide that can be prevented, I’m thinking here about Rwanda, Burundi, where there was no intervention of any meaningful size by anyone despite the UN wanting to do so, I thought something could and should have been done there.”

Social crisis claim: “We should be asking those corporations to pay a bit more, asking the very, very wealthiest to pay a bit more. The alternative is what? More food banks, more homeless people, more people on housing waiting lists, more queues in our hospitals, more than a million people already waiting for social care. There is a social crisis looming in Britain that cannot be resolved by continuing tax giveaways to the wealthiest in our society.”

Michael Fallon, defense secretary

Fresh attack on Corbyn: “We would certainly be less safe if Jeremy Corbyn was prime minister … Jeremy Corbyn is soft on terrorism”

On his own unfortunate past meeting, with Bashar al-Assad: “Ten years ago we all hoped that Assad would be a better leader than his father … We all went to see Assad, MPs from all parties and government ministers. It wasn’t a mistake to talk to Assad. We all wanted him to be a better leader of Syria than his father 10 years ago. That has not turned out to be the case.”

Responding to claims of in-fighting in the Tory campaign team: “Robert, you know this is Westminster tittle-tattle about various Westminster figures.”

Paul Nuttall, UKIP leader

On May’s Brexit negotiation: “I fear that she’ll begin to barter things away, I think fisheries could go, I think there will be a deal over the divorce bill, I think there may be a deal over freedom of movement and that isn’t what people voted for on June 23 last year. If people want to keep this Brexit clean you go out and vote for the real deal, and that’s Ukip.”

SOPHY RIDGE ON SUNDAY 

Takeaway: It’s a different fight north of the border.

Guests: Iain Macwhirter, political commentator at the Herald and Sunday Herald; and Alex Massie, Scotland editor of the Spectator.

Nicola Sturgeon, First Minister of Scotland and Scottish National Party leader

British foreign policy and terrorism: “Terrorists will always look for reasons to justify their actions but there is no justification … [but] we must be free, particularly in a general election campaign, to have honest debates about foreign policy.”

Defending Corbyn: “I heard Theresa May saying that what Jeremy Corbyn was saying was that we only had ourselves to blame for what happened in Manchester. I don’t think that’s what he was saying.”

Attacking Corbyn: “One of the things Labour has got to answer for in this election is that they have put forward a leader who lacks credibility in terms of people’s perception of his ability to be Prime Minister.”

Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader

Jeremy Corbyn’s speech on foreign policy and terrorism: “far too simplistic.”

Policy of keeping winter fuel payments for all pensioners in Scotland: “We’re making different choices, which is what devolution is designed to do.”

Polls narrowing: “The narrowing of the polls always happens at around this time and then it focuses people’s minds.”

Willie Rennie, Scottish Liberal Democrats’ leader

Staying upbeat: “We’re going to make gains in this election — in Scotland, we’re doing to make gains; down south, we’re going to make gains.”

Kezia Dugdale, Scottish Labour leader

Corbyn as help or hindrance? “He’s a help because of the platform he’s standing on.”

PIENAAR’S POLITICS

Takeway: Back to brutal politics.

Guests: David Wooding, political editor of Sun on Sunday; Jack Blanchard, political editor of Daily Mirror; Ayesha Hazarika, political commentator.

Ben Wallace, security minister

Social care: “We have to live within our means, that is our aim. We can’t just have a La La Land list.”

Working the same way with Europol after Brexit? “That’s what we want. Whether the European Commission want to allow us to do that, that’s a question that you’ll have to ask the Europeans.”

Social media companies and radical content: “We will be putting pressure on them … we think they can do more, they have the money to do more.”

Double-0 Corbyn? “There is no point in having lots of police with no powers. Jeremy Corbyn would produce James Bond who would be licensed to do absolutely nothing.”

Ian Lavery, Labour’s general election coordinator

Manifesto a hit with voters: “The manifesto is what they’ve been waiting for many, many years … This manifesto has got the ‘wow’ factor.”

Numbers behind nationalization: “The financial implications are yet to be set out as clearly perhaps as what they could have been…”

Tory attacks on Corbyn: “Brutal politics … I think the Conservative party are feeling a little bit battered and bruised by the initial two or three weeks of their campaign.”

Trying to convert Corbyn skeptics: “Jeremy’s a very honest man. He’s spent his entire political life working for peace.”

THE SUNDAY POLITICS

Takeaway: The polls really are turning, but May still on for majority.

Guests: Steve Richards, political commentator; Julia Hartley-Brewer, talkRADIO presenter; Tim Marshall, foreign affairs analyst

John Curtice, pollster

What are the polls really saying? “The clear consistent message from the polls is that the Conservative lead has narrowed. It matters because we are now in a position where the leads are such that the Conservatives can no longer be sure of getting the landslide majority that they want.”

“There are two major sources of variation in the polls which help to underline the uncertainty. The first is, the polls agree young voters are going to vote Labour if they vote, older voters for the Conservatives. The crucial thing is, how many of those younger voters will turn out to vote.

“The second thing is whether the evidence in the polls that the Conservatives are advancing more in the north of England and the Midlands and elsewhere is realized in the ballot box. If it isn’t realized, the Tories’ chances of getting a landslide are beginning to look rather remote. If it is, they could still well indeed get a majority of more than 80 or so.”

“It looks as though what seems to have happened is that there were a lot of people out there, particularly at the beginning of this election campaign who said, ‘I used to vote Labour but I’m not very sure about Jeremy Corbyn.’ They seem to have decided that the Labour manifesto wasn’t so bad after all, they’ve looked at Theresa May and said, given that choice, ‘you know what, I’m going to stick with Labour.'”

Richard Burgon, Labour’s shadow justice secretary 

On Corbyn’s counter-terror voting record: “It’s a very complex situation. What we don’t want to do is to introduce hastily prepared laws with one eye to newspaper headlines, which could actually act as recruiting sergeants for terrorism … If it were as simple that you could stop terrorism by voting a piece of legislation through parliament then terrorism would have been stopped a long time ago. Sadly there are no easy answers.”

On May attack on Corbyn: “What troubles me is we have a PM that must have sat down with her advisers earlier that day and said: ‘Well I know he didn’t say that, but if we say he did, then guess what, we might win some votes.’ I think that’s shameful, I think that shows Theresa May can’t be trusted. These issues should transcend party politics.”

WEEK AHEAD

Sunday  

— SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon interviewed by the BBC’s Andrew Neil, 6 p.m. local time

Monday

— UKIP leader Paul Nuttall interviewed by the BBC’s Andrew Neil, 7.30 p.m, local time

— Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn take part in Sky News / Channel 4 head-to-head election interviews, 8:30 p.m. local time

Tuesday 

— SNP manifesto launched

Wednesday

— Seven-party election debate on BBC, 7:30 p.m. local time

Thursday

— Liberal Democrat leader Tim Farron interviewed by the BBC’s Andrew Neil, 7 p.m. local time

Friday

— BBC Question Time election special with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, TBC